Why El Niño rains have delayed – Kenya Meteorological Department

Kenyans waiting for the October-December rains may have to contend with continued dry weather as atmospheric conditions over the Indian Ocean disrupt the movement of rain-bearing systems across the country.

The Kenya Meteorological Department says low-pressure systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily slowed the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a major driver of rainfall during the short-rains season.

Speaking in an interview with a local station on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, Kenya Met Director of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani explained that the changing weather patterns had disrupted the expected spread of rainfall to several parts of the country.

“During October to December, the Intertropical Convergence Zone brings us rainfall when it is moving from the north to the southern hemisphere,” she said.

“Low-pressure systems developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily stopped the southward progression of the intertropical convergence zone,” Kimani added.

She explained that some areas began receiving rain as early as September, while others recorded the onset in the first week of October. However, the development of low-pressure systems over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily interrupted the progression of the rain-bearing zone.

The delay has been particularly noticeable in parts of central and eastern Kenya, where residents had expected rainfall to spread gradually as the October-December season progressed.

Kimani said the Indian Ocean, which supplies moisture that supports rainfall, had not developed the conditions needed to sustain the expected rains over some areas.

“That is why we’ve been experiencing the dry weather conditions in a period where we expected also to gradually spread to the other parts of the country,” she said.

Some areas, including Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri and Meru, had recorded the onset of rainfall as expected, according to the interview.

The uneven distribution of rain highlights how seasonal forecasts do not necessarily mean every part of the country will receive rainfall at the same time.

Expectations had been high this season because the anticipated El Niño conditions were projected to enhance rainfall across parts of East Africa.

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A FEWS NET special report published on October 6, 2026, said the 2026-2027 El Niño had strengthened to very strong levels, with the combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole expected to bring above-average rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa.

Historical comparisons suggested rainfall could reach 150 percent of average or more in many areas.

“While above-average rains will benefit many areas through favourable crop production and improved pasture, browse, and water availability, strong El Niño events also typically bring heavy rainfall and flooding in the eastern Horn,” FEWS NET said.

However, the anticipated seasonal rainfall does not mean rain will fall continuously or begin simultaneously across all counties. Atmospheric circulation, moisture availability and the movement of weather systems influence when and where rainfall develops.

Kenya Met is monitoring a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean that could influence rainfall over the country, although its eventual impact will depend on its movement.

Kimani cautioned that tropical storms can either bring rain or divert rain-bearing systems away from the country, depending on their trajectories.

The department will continue monitoring conditions and issuing updated forecasts as new data becomes available.

For now, the return of widespread rainfall remains uncertain, with residents advised to follow official weather updates as conditions evolve.

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